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Salernitana vs Udinese — Serie A 2018

Salernitana
Salernitana
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Udinese
Udinese
5/27/2023Serie ASerie A · Round 37Stadio Arechi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Salernitana37%
×Draw25%
Udinese38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Salernitana
1.41
Udinese
1.44

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 38 home / 138 away

creates per match

Salernitana
1.24
Udinese
1.18

allows per match

Salernitana
1.71
Udinese
1.57

finishing

Salernitana+0.00on par
Udinese+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Salernitana ↓

Udinese →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Salernitana or draw
62%
Salernitana or Udinese
75%
Draw or Udinese
63%

Winning margin

Salernitana wins by 2+
17%
Udinese wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Salernitana 1+ goals
76%
Salernitana 2+ goals
41%
Salernitana 3+ goals
17%
Udinese 1+ goals
76%
Udinese 2+ goals
42%
Udinese 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Salernitana (draw refunded)
49%
Udinese (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Salernitana at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.71 · 38 matches

Udinese away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.57 · 138 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Salernitana attack 1.24 + Udinese defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.41

Udinese attack 1.18 + Salernitana defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Salernitana scores more
37%
level
25%
Udinese scores more
38%

Udinese at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Udinese will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie A: Salernitana 3–2 Udinese

Salernitana beat Udinese 3-2 in Serie A on May 27, 2023.

The match was played at Stadio Arechi in Salerno.