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Salernitana vs Spal — Serie B 2018

Salernitana
Salernitana
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Spal
Spal
3/2/2021Serie BSerie B · Round 26Stadio Arechi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Salernitana46%
×Draw27%
Spal27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Salernitana
1.40
Spal
1.01

Salernitana creates 39% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 59 away

creates per match

Salernitana
1.52
Spal
0.90

allows per match

Salernitana
1.11
Spal
1.27

finishing

Salernitana+0.00on par
Spal+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Salernitana ↓

Spal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Salernitana or draw
73%
Salernitana or Spal
73%
Draw or Spal
54%

Winning margin

Salernitana wins by 2+
22%
Spal wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Salernitana 1+ goals
75%
Salernitana 2+ goals
41%
Salernitana 3+ goals
17%
Spal 1+ goals
64%
Spal 2+ goals
27%
Spal 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Salernitana (draw refunded)
63%
Spal (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Salernitana at home — creates 1.52, concedes 1.11 · 75 matches

Spal away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.27 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Salernitana attack 1.52 + Spal defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.40

Spal attack 0.90 + Salernitana defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Salernitana scores more
46%
level
27%
Spal scores more
27%

Salernitana at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Salernitana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5
J. SegreSpalSpal · M
8.2

Match Events

37'
Sofian Kiyine
46'
L. Capezzi← S. Kiyine
72'
R. Durmisi← P. Jaroszyński
72'
A. Anderson← M. Coulibaly
72'
C. Gondo← M. Đurić
81'
L. Dickmann← M. Sala
86'
E. Cicerelli← G. Tutino
86'
F. Di Francesco← A. Paloschi
86'
A. Murgia← M. Valoti
88'
Etrit Berisha
90+1'
N. Tomović← L. Ranieri

Possession

39%Salernitana

Shots

13Salernitana

Pass accuracy

46%Salernitana

Statistics

SalernitanaSpal
Overview
39%Possession61%
13Total Shots8
3Corners4
18Fouls13
Shots
13Total Shots8
4On Target3
7Off Target4
2Blocked1
7Inside Box5
6Outside Box3
Passing
39%Possession61%
293Total Passes461
192Accurate Passes359
66%Pass Accuracy78%
Goalkeeping
3Saves4
Discipline
18Fouls13
1Yellow Cards1
1Offsides0

Serie B: Salernitana 0–0 Spal

Salernitana and Spal drew 0-0 in Serie B on March 2, 2021.

Spal controlled possession (61%) and registered 8 shots to 13.

The match was played at Stadio Arechi in Salerno.