Salernitana 2–0 Pescara: Result & Stats | Serie B

Salernitana

FT

2 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Pescara

E. Cicerelli 25'

C. Gondo 8'

1/23/2021

Serie B · Round 19Stadio Arechi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 72+ matches

Salernitana51%

×Draw25%

Pescara24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SalernitanaExpected goals in this matchPescara

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

1.03

Salernitana

1.60

Pescara

1.03

Salernitana creates 55% more chances

Season form · 73 home / 72 away

1.49

creates per match

0.96

1.10

allows per match

1.71

creates per match

Salernitana

1.49

Pescara

0.96

allows per match

Salernitana

1.10

Pescara

1.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Salernitana+0.00on par

Pescara+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Salernitana ↓

Pescara →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Salernitana or draw

76%

Salernitana or Pescara

75%

Draw or Pescara

49%

Winning margin

Salernitana wins by 2+

26%

Pescara wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Salernitana 1+ goals

80%

Salernitana 2+ goals

47%

Salernitana 3+ goals

22%

Pescara 1+ goals

64%

Pescara 2+ goals

28%

Pescara 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Salernitana (draw refunded)

67%

Pescara (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Salernitana at home — creates 1.49, concedes 1.10 · 73 matches

Pescara away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.71 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Salernitana attack 1.49 + Pescara defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.60

Pescara attack 0.96 + Salernitana defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Salernitana scores more

51%

level

25%

Pescara scores more

24%

Salernitana at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Salernitana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

14

F. Di Tacchio

Salernitana · M

8.2

Match Events

8'

9'

21'

25'

28'

38'

Pepín← P. Jaroszyński

45'

José Machín

63'

S. Omeonga← F. Maistro

64'

A. Balzano← R. Bellanova

70'

N. Giannetti← C. Gondo

74'

T. Kupisz← E. Cicerelli

75'

Tiago Casasola

80'

Raúl Asencio← L. Memushaj

80'

J. Odgaard← D. Ceter

83'

R. Aya← V. Mantovani

83'

A. Schiavone← L. Capezzi

83'

G. Tutino← M. Đurić

86'

Niccolò Giannetti

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SalernitanaPescara

Overview

36%Possession64%

12Total Shots16

4Corners6

17Fouls15

Shots

12Total Shots16

5On Target3

6Off Target8

1Blocked5

6Inside Box3

6Outside Box13

Passing

36%Possession64%

308Total Passes536

196Accurate Passes429

64%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

3Saves3

Discipline

17Fouls15

4Yellow Cards2

1Offsides0