Salernitana 0–2 Napoli: Result & Stats | Serie A

Salernitana

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Napoli

V. Osimhen 48'

G. Di Lorenzo 45+3'

1/21/2023

Serie A · Round 19Stadio Arechi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Salernitana23%

×Draw24%

Napoli53%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SalernitanaExpected goals in this matchNapoli

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.07

1.76

Salernitana

1.07

Napoli

1.76

Napoli creates 64% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 138 away

1.18

creates per match

1.75

1.77

allows per match

0.96

creates per match

Salernitana

1.18

Napoli

1.75

allows per match

Salernitana

1.77

Napoli

0.96

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Salernitana+0.00on par

Napoli+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Salernitana ↓

Napoli →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–110%

0–29%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

54%46%3.5

31%69%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Salernitana or draw

47%

Salernitana or Napoli

76%

Draw or Napoli

77%

Winning margin

Salernitana wins by 2+

9%

Napoli wins by 2+

30%

Team goals

Salernitana 1+ goals

66%

Salernitana 2+ goals

29%

Salernitana 3+ goals

9%

Napoli 1+ goals

83%

Napoli 2+ goals

52%

Napoli 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

Salernitana (draw refunded)

30%

Napoli (draw refunded)

70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Salernitana at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.77 · 40 matches

Napoli away — creates 1.75, concedes 0.96 · 138 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Salernitana attack 1.18 + Napoli defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.07

Napoli attack 1.75 + Salernitana defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Salernitana scores more

23%

level

24%

Napoli scores more

53%

Napoli at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Napoli will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

22

G. Di Lorenzo

Napoli · D

7.9

Match Events

16'

M. Lovato← N. Gyömbér

44'

Min-jae Kim

45+3'

G. Di Lorenzo↳ A. Zambo Anguissa

48'

V. Osimhen

73'

D. Valencia← T. Vilhena

75'

Domagoj Bradarić

78'

Lorenzo Pirola

85'

J. Sambia← F. Daniliuc

85'

F. Bonazzoli← B. Dia

86'

T. Ndombélé← P. Zieliński

86'

M. Politano← H. Lozano

89'

G. Simeone← V. Osimhen

90+4'

Tanguy Ndombélé

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SalernitanaNapoli

Overview

25%Possession75%

5Total Shots9

0.40Expected Goals (xG)1.38

3Corners4

14Fouls15

Shots

5Total Shots9

2On Target4

2Off Target4

1Blocked1

3Inside Box6

2Outside Box3

Passing

25%Possession75%

269Total Passes795

184Accurate Passes713

68%Pass Accuracy90%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

14Fouls15

2Yellow Cards2

4Offsides3