Salernitana 0–1 Napoli: Result & Stats | Serie A

Salernitana

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Napoli

P. Zieliński 61'

10/31/2021

Serie A · Round 11Stadio Arechi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

Salernitana22%

×Draw23%

Napoli54%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SalernitanaExpected goals in this matchNapoli

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.04

1.77

Salernitana

1.04

Napoli

1.77

Napoli creates 70% more chances

Season form · 41 home / 141 away

1.15

creates per match

1.75

1.78

allows per match

0.94

creates per match

Salernitana

1.15

Napoli

1.75

allows per match

Salernitana

1.78

Napoli

0.94

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Salernitana+0.00on par

Napoli+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Salernitana ↓

Napoli →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–111%

0–29%

0–36%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Salernitana or draw

46%

Salernitana or Napoli

77%

Draw or Napoli

78%

Winning margin

Salernitana wins by 2+

8%

Napoli wins by 2+

30%

Team goals

Salernitana 1+ goals

65%

Salernitana 2+ goals

28%

Salernitana 3+ goals

9%

Napoli 1+ goals

83%

Napoli 2+ goals

53%

Napoli 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

Salernitana (draw refunded)

29%

Napoli (draw refunded)

71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Salernitana at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.78 · 41 matches

Napoli away — creates 1.75, concedes 0.94 · 141 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Salernitana attack 1.15 + Napoli defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.04

Napoli attack 1.75 + Salernitana defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Salernitana scores more

22%

level

23%

Napoli scores more

54%

Napoli at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Napoli will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

99

A. Zambo Anguissa

Napoli · M

7.7

Match Events

41'

André Zambo Anguissa

59'

E. Elmas← H. Lozano

60'

A. Petagna← D. Mertens

61'

P. Zieliński

64'

S. Nwankwo← C. Gondo

69'

Grigoris Kastanos

69'

Grigoris KastanosCard upgrade

71'

J. Obi← F. Bonazzoli

74'

Mário Rui

76'

Kalidou Koulibaly

80'

Juan Jesus← M. Politano

88'

M. Đurić← A. Schiavone

88'

R. Gagliolo← L. Ranieri

90+5'

A. Zanoli← P. Zieliński

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SalernitanaNapoli

Overview

37%Possession63%

9Total Shots18

4Corners4

11Fouls13

Shots

9Total Shots18

3On Target3

4Off Target9

2Blocked6

4Inside Box11

5Outside Box7

Passing

37%Possession63%

299Total Passes531

234Accurate Passes454

78%Pass Accuracy85%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

11Fouls13

0Yellow Cards2

1Red Cards1

0Offsides2