Salernitana 1–2 Juve Stabia: Result & Stats

Salernitana

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Juve Stabia

12/15/2024

Serie B · Round 17Stadio Arechi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Salernitana49%

×Draw26%

Juve Stabia25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SalernitanaExpected goals in this matchJuve Stabia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.02

Salernitana

1.52

Juve Stabia

1.02

Salernitana creates 49% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 60 away

1.51

creates per match

0.92

1.12

allows per match

1.53

creates per match

Salernitana

1.51

Juve Stabia

0.92

allows per match

Salernitana

1.12

Juve Stabia

1.53

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Salernitana+0.00on par

Juve Stabia+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Salernitana ↓

Juve Stabia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Salernitana or draw

75%

Salernitana or Juve Stabia

74%

Draw or Juve Stabia

51%

Winning margin

Salernitana wins by 2+

25%

Juve Stabia wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Salernitana 1+ goals

78%

Salernitana 2+ goals

45%

Salernitana 3+ goals

20%

Juve Stabia 1+ goals

64%

Juve Stabia 2+ goals

27%

Juve Stabia 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Salernitana (draw refunded)

66%

Juve Stabia (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Salernitana at home — creates 1.51, concedes 1.12 · 76 matches

Juve Stabia away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.53 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Salernitana attack 1.51 + Juve Stabia defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.52

Juve Stabia attack 0.92 + Salernitana defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Salernitana scores more

49%

level

26%

Juve Stabia scores more

25%

Salernitana at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Salernitana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff