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Salernitana vs Ascoli — Serie B 2018

Salernitana
Salernitana
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Ascoli
Ascoli
10/24/2020Serie BSerie B · Round 5Stadio Arechi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

Salernitana46%
×Draw26%
Ascoli28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Salernitana
1.50
Ascoli
1.10

Salernitana creates 36% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 114 away

creates per match

Salernitana
1.51
Ascoli
1.08

allows per match

Salernitana
1.12
Ascoli
1.50

finishing

Salernitana+0.00on par
Ascoli+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Salernitana ↓

Ascoli →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Salernitana or draw
72%
Salernitana or Ascoli
74%
Draw or Ascoli
54%

Winning margin

Salernitana wins by 2+
23%
Ascoli wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Salernitana 1+ goals
78%
Salernitana 2+ goals
44%
Salernitana 3+ goals
19%
Ascoli 1+ goals
67%
Ascoli 2+ goals
30%
Ascoli 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Salernitana (draw refunded)
63%
Ascoli (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Salernitana at home — creates 1.51, concedes 1.12 · 76 matches

Ascoli away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.50 · 114 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Salernitana attack 1.51 + Ascoli defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.50

Ascoli attack 1.08 + Salernitana defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Salernitana scores more
46%
level
26%
Ascoli scores more
28%

Salernitana at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Salernitana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Salernitana vs Ascoli

Salernitana beat Ascoli 1-0 in Serie B on October 24, 2020.

The match was played at Stadio Arechi in Salerno.