Salernitana 1–1 Ascoli: Result & Stats | Serie B

Salernitana

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Ascoli

F. Di Tacchio 61'

N. Ninković 8'

9/25/2018

Serie B · Round 5Stadio Arechi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 75+ matches

Salernitana47%

×Draw26%

Ascoli27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SalernitanaExpected goals in this matchAscoli

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.08

Salernitana

1.50

Ascoli

1.08

Salernitana creates 39% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 119 away

1.52

creates per match

1.04

1.11

allows per match

1.49

creates per match

Salernitana

1.52

Ascoli

1.04

allows per match

Salernitana

1.11

Ascoli

1.49

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Salernitana+0.00on par

Ascoli+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Salernitana ↓

Ascoli →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Salernitana or draw

73%

Salernitana or Ascoli

74%

Draw or Ascoli

53%

Winning margin

Salernitana wins by 2+

23%

Ascoli wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Salernitana 1+ goals

78%

Salernitana 2+ goals

44%

Salernitana 3+ goals

19%

Ascoli 1+ goals

66%

Ascoli 2+ goals

29%

Ascoli 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Salernitana (draw refunded)

63%

Ascoli (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Salernitana at home — creates 1.52, concedes 1.11 · 75 matches

Ascoli away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.49 · 119 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Salernitana attack 1.52 + Ascoli defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.50

Ascoli attack 1.04 + Salernitana defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Salernitana scores more

47%

level

26%

Ascoli scores more

27%

Salernitana at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Salernitana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'

N. Ninković

25'

Federico Casarini

44'

Milan Đurić

46'

L. Castiglia← D. Di Gennaro

58'

R. Bocalon← A. Vuletich

61'

F. Di Tacchio↳ A. Mazzarani

67'

B. Addae← F. Casarini

73'

L. Jallow← M. Đurić

82'

E. Baldini← M. Troiano

86'

L. Rosseti← M. Ardemagni

88'

Lorenzo Laverone

89'

Jean-Daniel Akpa Akpro

90'

Michele Cavion

Possession

Shots

Statistics

SalernitanaAscoli

Overview

42%Possession58%

12Total Shots9

4Corners3

17Fouls17

Shots

12Total Shots9

4On Target4

8Off Target5

Passing

42%Possession58%

Goalkeeping

3Saves3

Discipline

17Fouls17

2Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards0

2Offsides0