Salernitana U19 2–1 Spezia U19: Result & Stats

Salernitana U19

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Spezia U19

2/15/2025

Campionato Primavera - 2 · Group B - 19Campo Vincenzo Volpe

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 83+ matches

Salernitana U1936%

×Draw24%

Spezia U1940%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Salernitana U19Expected goals in this matchSpezia U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

1.54

Salernitana U19

1.46

Spezia U19

1.54

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 84 home / 83 away

1.33

creates per match

1.37

1.70

allows per match

1.59

creates per match

Salernitana U19

1.33

Spezia U19

1.37

allows per match

Salernitana U19

1.70

Spezia U19

1.59

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Salernitana U19+0.00on par

Spezia U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Salernitana U19 ↓

Spezia U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Salernitana U19 or draw

60%

Salernitana U19 or Spezia U19

76%

Draw or Spezia U19

64%

Winning margin

Salernitana U19 wins by 2+

17%

Spezia U19 wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Salernitana U19 1+ goals

77%

Salernitana U19 2+ goals

43%

Salernitana U19 3+ goals

18%

Spezia U19 1+ goals

79%

Spezia U19 2+ goals

45%

Spezia U19 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Salernitana U19 (draw refunded)

48%

Spezia U19 (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Salernitana U19 at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.70 · 84 matches

Spezia U19 away — creates 1.37, concedes 1.59 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Salernitana U19 attack 1.33 + Spezia U19 defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.46

Spezia U19 attack 1.37 + Salernitana U19 defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Salernitana U19 scores more

36%

level

24%

Spezia U19 scores more

40%

Spezia U19 at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Spezia U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff