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Salernitana U19 vs Cosenza U19 — Campionato Primavera - 2 2020

Salernitana U19
Salernitana U19
FT
2 – 3
HT: 2 – 2
Cosenza U19
Cosenza U19
5/3/2025Campionato Primavera - 2Campionato Primavera - 2 · Group B - 29Campo Vincenzo Volpe

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 84+ matches

Salernitana U1937%
×Draw25%
Cosenza U1938%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Salernitana U19
1.45
Cosenza U19
1.46

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 84 home / 84 away

creates per match

Salernitana U19
1.33
Cosenza U19
1.21

allows per match

Salernitana U19
1.70
Cosenza U19
1.57

finishing

Salernitana U19+0.00on par
Cosenza U19+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Salernitana U19 ↓

Cosenza U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Salernitana U19 or draw
62%
Salernitana U19 or Cosenza U19
75%
Draw or Cosenza U19
63%

Winning margin

Salernitana U19 wins by 2+
18%
Cosenza U19 wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Salernitana U19 1+ goals
77%
Salernitana U19 2+ goals
42%
Salernitana U19 3+ goals
18%
Cosenza U19 1+ goals
77%
Cosenza U19 2+ goals
43%
Cosenza U19 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Salernitana U19 (draw refunded)
50%
Cosenza U19 (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Salernitana U19 at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.70 · 84 matches

Cosenza U19 away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.57 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Salernitana U19 attack 1.33 + Cosenza U19 defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.45

Cosenza U19 attack 1.21 + Salernitana U19 defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Salernitana U19 scores more
37%
level
25%
Cosenza U19 scores more
38%

Cosenza U19 at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Cosenza U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Salernitana U19 vs Cosenza U19

Cosenza U19 beat Salernitana U19 3-2 in Campionato Primavera - 2 on May 3, 2025.

The match was played at Campo Vincenzo Volpe in Salerno.