Saldus SS/Leevon 0–5 Lokomotiv Daugavpils

Saldus SS/Leevon

FT

0 – 5

Lokomotiv Daugavpils

R. Rascevskis 90'

D. Herman 80'

A. Fertovs 44'

D. Klimasevics 32'

V. Kuzmins 16'

7/25/2020

1. Liga · Round 4Saldus pilsētas stadionā

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Saldus SS/Leevon18%

×Draw18%

Lokomotiv Daugavpils64%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Saldus SS/LeevonExpected goals in this matchLokomotiv Daugavpils

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

2.56

Saldus SS/Leevon

1.29

Lokomotiv Daugavpils

2.56

Lokomotiv Daugavpils creates 98% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 6 away

1.41

creates per match

3.50

1.62

allows per match

1.17

creates per match

Saldus SS/Leevon

1.41

Lokomotiv Daugavpils

3.50

allows per match

Saldus SS/Leevon

1.62

Lokomotiv Daugavpils

1.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Saldus SS/Leevon+0.00on par

Lokomotiv Daugavpils+0.00on par

Total goals

Over73
Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Saldus SS/Leevon ↓

Lokomotiv Daugavpils →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–16%

0–27%

0–36%

0–44%

1

1–03%

1–17%

1–29%

1–38%

1–45%

2

2–02%

2–15%

2–26%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

73%27%3.5

53%47%4.5

33%67%

Double chance

Saldus SS/Leevon or draw

36%

Saldus SS/Leevon or Lokomotiv Daugavpils

82%

Draw or Lokomotiv Daugavpils

82%

Winning margin

Saldus SS/Leevon wins by 2+

7%

Lokomotiv Daugavpils wins by 2+

43%

Team goals

Saldus SS/Leevon 1+ goals

72%

Saldus SS/Leevon 2+ goals

37%

Saldus SS/Leevon 3+ goals

14%

Lokomotiv Daugavpils 1+ goals

92%

Lokomotiv Daugavpils 2+ goals

72%

Lokomotiv Daugavpils 3+ goals

46%

Draw no bet

Saldus SS/Leevon (draw refunded)

22%

Lokomotiv Daugavpils (draw refunded)

78%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Saldus SS/Leevon at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.62 · 39 matches

Lokomotiv Daugavpils away — creates 3.50, concedes 1.17 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Saldus SS/Leevon attack 1.41 + Lokomotiv Daugavpils defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.29

Lokomotiv Daugavpils attack 3.50 + Saldus SS/Leevon defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 2.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Saldus SS/Leevon scores more

18%

level

18%

Lokomotiv Daugavpils scores more

64%

Lokomotiv Daugavpils at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Lokomotiv Daugavpils will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

16'

V. Kuzmins

32'

D. Klimasevics

44'

A. Fertovs

80'

D. Herman

90'

R. Rascevskis

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff