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Salcedo vs Atlántico — Liga Mayor 2025

Salcedo
Salcedo
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Atlántico
Atlántico
D. Jamesley 32'
A. Carrera 16' (pen)
D. Batista 10'
8/13/2025Liga MayorLiga Mayor · Round 3Estadio de Fútbol Domingo Polonia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Salcedo35%
×Draw32%
Atlántico34%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Salcedo
0.96
Atlántico
0.94

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 8 home / 3 away

creates per match

Salcedo
1.25
Atlántico
1.00

allows per match

Salcedo
0.88
Atlántico
0.67

finishing

Salcedo+0.00on par
Atlántico+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Salcedo ↓

Atlántico →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–114%
0–27%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Salcedo or draw
66%
Salcedo or Atlántico
68%
Draw or Atlántico
65%

Winning margin

Salcedo wins by 2+
13%
Atlántico wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Salcedo 1+ goals
62%
Salcedo 2+ goals
25%
Salcedo 3+ goals
7%
Atlántico 1+ goals
61%
Atlántico 2+ goals
24%
Atlántico 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Salcedo (draw refunded)
51%
Atlántico (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Salcedo at home — creates 1.25, concedes 0.88 · 8 matches

Atlántico away — creates 1.00, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Salcedo attack 1.25 + Atlántico defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.96

Atlántico attack 1.00 + Salcedo defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

Salcedo scores more
35%
level
32%
Atlántico scores more
34%

Salcedo at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "Salcedo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'
D. Batista
16'
A. CarreraPenalty
32'
D. Jamesley

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga Mayor: Salcedo 2–1 Atlántico

Salcedo beat Atlántico 2-1 in Liga Mayor on August 13, 2025.

Goals: D. Batista (10'), A. Carrera (16' pen), D. Jamesley (32').

The match was played at Estadio de Fútbol Domingo Polonia in Salcedo.