Salamanca UDS 2–1 UD Santa Marta: Result & Stats

Salamanca UDS

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

UD Santa Marta

1/21/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 17Estadio El Helmántico

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Salamanca UDS61%

×Draw24%

UD Santa Marta15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Salamanca UDSExpected goals in this matchUD Santa Marta

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.66

0.66

Salamanca UDS

1.66

UD Santa Marta

0.66

Salamanca UDS creates 152% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 115 away

1.82

creates per match

0.97

0.35

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Salamanca UDS

1.82

UD Santa Marta

0.97

allows per match

Salamanca UDS

0.35

UD Santa Marta

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Salamanca UDS+0.00on par

UD Santa Marta+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Salamanca UDS ↓

UD Santa Marta →

0–010%

0–16%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1–016%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2–014%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3–08%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Salamanca UDS or draw

85%

Salamanca UDS or UD Santa Marta

76%

Draw or UD Santa Marta

39%

Winning margin

Salamanca UDS wins by 2+

34%

UD Santa Marta wins by 2+

Team goals

Salamanca UDS 1+ goals

81%

Salamanca UDS 2+ goals

49%

Salamanca UDS 3+ goals

23%

UD Santa Marta 1+ goals

48%

UD Santa Marta 2+ goals

14%

UD Santa Marta 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Salamanca UDS (draw refunded)

81%

UD Santa Marta (draw refunded)

19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Salamanca UDS at home — creates 1.82, concedes 0.35 · 17 matches

UD Santa Marta away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.50 · 115 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Salamanca UDS attack 1.82 + UD Santa Marta defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.66

UD Santa Marta attack 0.97 + Salamanca UDS defence 0.35 → ÷2 → 0.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 61%?"

Salamanca UDS scores more

61%

level

24%

UD Santa Marta scores more

15%

Salamanca UDS at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Salamanca UDS will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Salamanca UDS vs UD Santa Marta

Salamanca UDS beat UD Santa Marta 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 on January 21, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio El Helmántico in Salamanca.

Salamanca UDS vs UD Santa Marta — Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Salamanca UDS vs UD Santa Marta