Salamanca UDS 0–2 UD Logroñés: Result & Stats

Salamanca UDS

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

UD Logroñés

Rubén Martínez 52'

Olaetxea 11'

9/22/2019

Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 5Estadio El Helmántico

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Salamanca UDS35%

×Draw30%

UD Logroñés35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Salamanca UDSExpected goals in this matchUD Logroñés

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.03

Salamanca UDS

1.03

UD Logroñés

1.03

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 13 home / 32 away

1.15

creates per match

1.06

1.00

allows per match

0.91

creates per match

Salamanca UDS

1.15

UD Logroñés

1.06

allows per match

Salamanca UDS

1.00

UD Logroñés

0.91

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Salamanca UDS+0.00on par

UD Logroñés+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Salamanca UDS ↓

UD Logroñés →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–113%

0–27%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–114%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

61%39%2.5

34%66%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Salamanca UDS or draw

65%

Salamanca UDS or UD Logroñés

70%

Draw or UD Logroñés

65%

Winning margin

Salamanca UDS wins by 2+

13%

UD Logroñés wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Salamanca UDS 1+ goals

64%

Salamanca UDS 2+ goals

28%

Salamanca UDS 3+ goals

9%

UD Logroñés 1+ goals

64%

UD Logroñés 2+ goals

28%

UD Logroñés 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Salamanca UDS (draw refunded)

50%

UD Logroñés (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Salamanca UDS at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.00 · 13 matches

UD Logroñés away — creates 1.06, concedes 0.91 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Salamanca UDS attack 1.15 + UD Logroñés defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.03

UD Logroñés attack 1.06 + Salamanca UDS defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

Salamanca UDS scores more

35%

level

30%

UD Logroñés scores more

35%

Salamanca UDS at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "Salamanca UDS will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'

Olaetxea

52'

Edu Ubis← N. Calderón

52'

Rubén Martínez

54'

Rayco García← Javi Álamo

61'

Antonio Amaro← Álex Serrano

65'

Míchel Zabaco← Gorka Pérez

70'

Giovanni← M. Galván

82'

Roni← Ander Vitoria

Salamanca

UD

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Pablo Cortés

52'▲Edu Ubis←▼N. Calderón

61'▲Antonio Amaro←▼Álex Serrano

70'▲Giovanni←▼M. Galván

Salamanca UDS substitutes

UbisAmaroGiovanniSánchezCrespoSánchezÁlvarez

Manager: Sergio Rodríguez

54'▲Rayco García←▼Javi Álamo

65'▲Míchel Zabaco←▼Gorka Pérez

82'▲Roni←▼Ander Vitoria

UD Logroñés substitutes

GarcíaZabacoRoniÑoñoSocorroMeykherSierra