Salamanca UDS 2–1 Tudelano: Result & Stats

Salamanca UDS

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Tudelano

Hugo Díaz 70' (pen)

Edu Ubis 52' (pen)

Diego Suárez 79'

12/21/2019

Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 18Estadio El Helmántico

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Salamanca UDS43%

×Draw28%

Tudelano29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Salamanca UDSExpected goals in this matchTudelano

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.32

1.02

Salamanca UDS

1.32

Tudelano

1.02

Salamanca UDS creates 29% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 26 away

1.15

creates per match

1.04

1.00

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Salamanca UDS

1.15

Tudelano

1.04

allows per match

Salamanca UDS

1.00

Tudelano

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Salamanca UDS+0.00on par

Tudelano+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Salamanca UDS ↓

Tudelano →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Salamanca UDS or draw

71%

Salamanca UDS or Tudelano

72%

Draw or Tudelano

57%

Winning margin

Salamanca UDS wins by 2+

20%

Tudelano wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Salamanca UDS 1+ goals

73%

Salamanca UDS 2+ goals

38%

Salamanca UDS 3+ goals

15%

Tudelano 1+ goals

64%

Tudelano 2+ goals

27%

Tudelano 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Salamanca UDS (draw refunded)

60%

Tudelano (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Salamanca UDS at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.00 · 13 matches

Tudelano away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.50 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Salamanca UDS attack 1.15 + Tudelano defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.32

Tudelano attack 1.04 + Salamanca UDS defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Salamanca UDS scores more

43%

level

28%

Tudelano scores more

29%

Salamanca UDS at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Salamanca UDS will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

52'

Edu UbisPenalty

60'

Hugo Díaz← Edu Ubis

70'

Hugo DíazPenalty

71'

E. Torres← Miguel Díaz

71'

Unai Zamorano← D. Cortés

76'

Ángel Sánchez← A. Țîrlea

79'

Diego Suárez

81'

Luis Jiménez← David Soto

85'

J. Chiapas← Álex Altube

Salamanca

Tudelano

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

Ubis

▼

Altube

Manager: Aitor Larrazábal

60'▲Hugo Díaz←▼Edu Ubis

76'▲Ángel Sánchez←▼A. Țîrlea

85'▲J. Chiapas←▼Álex Altube

Salamanca UDS substitutes

DíazSánchezChiapasSánchezGalvánMellaTorres

Manager: Lumbreras

71'▲E. Torres←▼Miguel Díaz

71'▲Unai Zamorano←▼D. Cortés

81'▲Luis Jiménez←▼David Soto

Tudelano substitutes

TorresZamoranoJiménezLópez