Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Salamanca UDS vs Osasuna II — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Salamanca UDS
Salamanca UDS
CANC
22:00
Osasuna II
Osasuna II
5/16/2020Primera División RFEF - Group 2Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 38Estadio El Helmántico

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Salamanca UDS44%
×Draw28%
Osasuna II28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Salamanca UDS
1.32
Osasuna II
0.98

Salamanca UDS creates 35% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 46 away

creates per match

Salamanca UDS
1.15
Osasuna II
0.96

allows per match

Salamanca UDS
1.00
Osasuna II
1.50

finishing

Salamanca UDS+0.00on par
Osasuna II+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Salamanca UDS ↓

Osasuna II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Salamanca UDS or draw
72%
Salamanca UDS or Osasuna II
72%
Draw or Osasuna II
56%

Winning margin

Salamanca UDS wins by 2+
21%
Osasuna II wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Salamanca UDS 1+ goals
73%
Salamanca UDS 2+ goals
38%
Salamanca UDS 3+ goals
15%
Osasuna II 1+ goals
62%
Osasuna II 2+ goals
26%
Osasuna II 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Salamanca UDS (draw refunded)
62%
Osasuna II (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Salamanca UDS at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.00 · 13 matches

Osasuna II away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.50 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Salamanca UDS attack 1.15 + Osasuna II defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.32

Osasuna II attack 0.96 + Salamanca UDS defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Salamanca UDS scores more
44%
level
28%
Osasuna II scores more
28%

Salamanca UDS at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Salamanca UDS will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Salamanca UDS face Osasuna II (Primera División RFEF - Group 2)

Primera División RFEF - Group 2 returns with Salamanca UDS hosting Osasuna II. Match starts May 16, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Salamanca UDS host Osasuna II at Estadio El Helmántico.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.