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Salamanca UDS vs Mirandés II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 2019

Salamanca UDS
Salamanca UDS
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Mirandés II
Mirandés II
9/17/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 8Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 2Estadio El Helmántico

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Salamanca UDS58%
×Draw25%
Mirandés II16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Salamanca UDS
1.58
Mirandés II
0.70

Salamanca UDS creates 126% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 112 away

creates per match

Salamanca UDS
1.82
Mirandés II
1.04

allows per match

Salamanca UDS
0.35
Mirandés II
1.34

finishing

Salamanca UDS+0.00on par
Mirandés II+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Salamanca UDS ↓

Mirandés II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Salamanca UDS or draw
84%
Salamanca UDS or Mirandés II
75%
Draw or Mirandés II
42%

Winning margin

Salamanca UDS wins by 2+
32%
Mirandés II wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Salamanca UDS 1+ goals
79%
Salamanca UDS 2+ goals
47%
Salamanca UDS 3+ goals
21%
Mirandés II 1+ goals
50%
Mirandés II 2+ goals
16%
Mirandés II 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Salamanca UDS (draw refunded)
78%
Mirandés II (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Salamanca UDS at home — creates 1.82, concedes 0.35 · 17 matches

Mirandés II away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.34 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Salamanca UDS attack 1.82 + Mirandés II defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.58

Mirandés II attack 1.04 + Salamanca UDS defence 0.35 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Salamanca UDS scores more
58%
level
25%
Mirandés II scores more
16%

Salamanca UDS at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Salamanca UDS will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Salamanca UDS 2 – 0 Mirandés II

Salamanca UDS beat Mirandés II 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 on September 17, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio El Helmántico in Salamanca.