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Salamanca UDS vs Cultural Leonesa II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 2019

Salamanca UDS
Salamanca UDS
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Cultural Leonesa II
Cultural Leonesa II
3/31/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 8Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 27Estadio El Helmántico

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Salamanca UDS54%
×Draw27%
Cultural Leonesa II20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Salamanca UDS
1.45
Cultural Leonesa II
0.76

Salamanca UDS creates 91% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 110 away

creates per match

Salamanca UDS
1.82
Cultural Leonesa II
1.17

allows per match

Salamanca UDS
0.35
Cultural Leonesa II
1.08

finishing

Salamanca UDS+0.00on par
Cultural Leonesa II+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Salamanca UDS ↓

Cultural Leonesa II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Salamanca UDS or draw
80%
Salamanca UDS or Cultural Leonesa II
73%
Draw or Cultural Leonesa II
46%

Winning margin

Salamanca UDS wins by 2+
27%
Cultural Leonesa II wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Salamanca UDS 1+ goals
77%
Salamanca UDS 2+ goals
42%
Salamanca UDS 3+ goals
18%
Cultural Leonesa II 1+ goals
53%
Cultural Leonesa II 2+ goals
18%
Cultural Leonesa II 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Salamanca UDS (draw refunded)
73%
Cultural Leonesa II (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Salamanca UDS at home — creates 1.82, concedes 0.35 · 17 matches

Cultural Leonesa II away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.08 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Salamanca UDS attack 1.82 + Cultural Leonesa II defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.45

Cultural Leonesa II attack 1.17 + Salamanca UDS defence 0.35 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Salamanca UDS scores more
54%
level
27%
Cultural Leonesa II scores more
20%

Salamanca UDS at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Salamanca UDS will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Salamanca UDS vs Cultural Leonesa II

Salamanca UDS beat Cultural Leonesa II 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 on March 31, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio El Helmántico in Villares de la Reina.