Salamanca UDS 2–1 Compostela: Result & Stats

Salamanca UDS

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Compostela

J. Victoria 90+3'

Iban Ribeiro 81' (pen)

Jimmy Seoane 5'

5/15/2022

League #875 · Group 1 - 34Estadio El Helmántico

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Salamanca UDS45%

×Draw27%

Compostela28%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Salamanca UDSExpected goals in this matchCompostela

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

1.00

Salamanca UDS

1.35

Compostela

1.00

Salamanca UDS creates 35% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 21 away

1.47

creates per match

0.81

1.20

allows per match

1.24

creates per match

Salamanca UDS

1.47

Compostela

0.81

allows per match

Salamanca UDS

1.20

Compostela

1.24

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Salamanca UDS+0.00on par

Compostela+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Salamanca UDS ↓

Compostela →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Salamanca UDS or draw

72%

Salamanca UDS or Compostela

73%

Draw or Compostela

55%

Winning margin

Salamanca UDS wins by 2+

21%

Compostela wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Salamanca UDS 1+ goals

74%

Salamanca UDS 2+ goals

39%

Salamanca UDS 3+ goals

15%

Compostela 1+ goals

63%

Compostela 2+ goals

26%

Compostela 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Salamanca UDS (draw refunded)

62%

Compostela (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Salamanca UDS at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.20 · 15 matches

Compostela away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.24 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Salamanca UDS attack 1.47 + Compostela defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.35

Compostela attack 0.81 + Salamanca UDS defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Salamanca UDS scores more

45%

level

27%

Compostela scores more

28%

Salamanca UDS at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Salamanca UDS will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

5'

Jimmy Seoane

46'

Manin← Willy Ibáñez

59'

Raúl Uche← Álex Menéndez

65'

L. Martínez← Álvaro Arencibia

67'

Jimmy Seoane← Antonio Salado

67'

Rodri← Parapar

74'

Rafa Mella← Josiño

75'

Antonio Alemán← Fer

75'

Mikel Bueno← L. Télles

81'

Iban RibeiroPenalty

88'

Mario Constenla← Pablo Durán

88'

Saro Seoane← Samu Rodríguez

90+3'

J. Victoria

Salamanca

Compostela

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▼

▼

▼

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▼

▼

▼

▼

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⚽

⚽

Manager: María Hernández

46'▲Manin←▼Willy Ibáñez

59'▲Raúl Uche←▼Álex Menéndez

65'▲L. Martínez←▼Álvaro Arencibia

75'▲Antonio Alemán←▼Fer

75'▲Mikel Bueno←▼L. Télles

Salamanca UDS substitutes

ManinUcheMartínezAlemánBuenoMonroyBenítez

Manager: Rodri

67'▲Jimmy Seoane←▼Antonio Salado

67'▲Rodri←▼Parapar

74'▲Rafa Mella←▼Josiño

88'▲Mario Constenla←▼Pablo Durán

88'▲Saro Seoane←▼Samu Rodríguez

Compostela substitutes

SeoaneRodriMellaConstenlaSeoaneReyTorres