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Salamanca UDS vs Celta de Vigo II — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Salamanca UDS
Salamanca UDS
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Celta de Vigo II
Celta de Vigo II
11/29/2020Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 6Estadio El Helmántico

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Salamanca UDS44%
×Draw26%
Celta de Vigo II31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Salamanca UDS
1.49
Celta de Vigo II
1.21

Salamanca UDS creates 23% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 120 away

creates per match

Salamanca UDS
1.69
Celta de Vigo II
1.33

allows per match

Salamanca UDS
1.08
Celta de Vigo II
1.29

finishing

Salamanca UDS+0.00on par
Celta de Vigo II+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Salamanca UDS ↓

Celta de Vigo II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Salamanca UDS or draw
69%
Salamanca UDS or Celta de Vigo II
74%
Draw or Celta de Vigo II
56%

Winning margin

Salamanca UDS wins by 2+
21%
Celta de Vigo II wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Salamanca UDS 1+ goals
77%
Salamanca UDS 2+ goals
44%
Salamanca UDS 3+ goals
19%
Celta de Vigo II 1+ goals
70%
Celta de Vigo II 2+ goals
34%
Celta de Vigo II 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Salamanca UDS (draw refunded)
59%
Celta de Vigo II (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Salamanca UDS at home — creates 1.69, concedes 1.08 · 13 matches

Celta de Vigo II away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.29 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Salamanca UDS attack 1.69 + Celta de Vigo II defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.49

Celta de Vigo II attack 1.33 + Salamanca UDS defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Salamanca UDS scores more
44%
level
26%
Celta de Vigo II scores more
31%

Salamanca UDS at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Salamanca UDS will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División RFEF - Group 1: Salamanca UDS 0–3 Celta de Vigo II

Celta de Vigo II beat Salamanca UDS 3-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on November 29, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio El Helmántico in Salamanca.