Salamanca UDS 0–3 Amorebieta: Result & Stats

Salamanca UDS

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 3

Amorebieta

Antxón Jaso 24'

Ekain Zenitagoia 21', 7'

1/19/2020

Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 21Estadio El Helmántico

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Salamanca UDS36%

×Draw30%

Amorebieta35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Salamanca UDSExpected goals in this matchAmorebieta

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.06

1.04

Salamanca UDS

1.06

Amorebieta

1.04

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 13 home / 46 away

1.15

creates per match

1.07

1.00

allows per match

0.98

creates per match

Salamanca UDS

1.15

Amorebieta

1.07

allows per match

Salamanca UDS

1.00

Amorebieta

0.98

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Salamanca UDS+0.00on par

Amorebieta+0.00on par

Total goals

Under65
Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Salamanca UDS ↓

Amorebieta →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–113%

0–27%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–114%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

35%65%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Salamanca UDS or draw

65%

Salamanca UDS or Amorebieta

70%

Draw or Amorebieta

64%

Winning margin

Salamanca UDS wins by 2+

14%

Amorebieta wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Salamanca UDS 1+ goals

65%

Salamanca UDS 2+ goals

29%

Salamanca UDS 3+ goals

9%

Amorebieta 1+ goals

65%

Amorebieta 2+ goals

28%

Amorebieta 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Salamanca UDS (draw refunded)

51%

Amorebieta (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Salamanca UDS at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.00 · 13 matches

Amorebieta away — creates 1.07, concedes 0.98 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Salamanca UDS attack 1.15 + Amorebieta defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.06

Amorebieta attack 1.07 + Salamanca UDS defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Salamanca UDS scores more

36%

level

30%

Amorebieta scores more

35%

Salamanca UDS at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Salamanca UDS will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

7'

Ekain Zenitagoia

21'

Ekain Zenitagoia

24'

Antxón Jaso

46'

Ángel Sánchez← Carpio

46'

N. Calderón← K. Álvarez

60'

Íñigo Orozco← Ekain Zenitagoia

67'

Aitor Ortega← Mikel Álvaro

70'

Hugo Díaz← M. Galván

77'

Ekaitz Molina← Iker Bilbao

Salamanca

Amorebieta

⚽

▼

▼

⚽2

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Aitor Larrazábal

46'▲Ángel Sánchez←▼Carpio

46'▲N. Calderón←▼K. Álvarez

70'▲Hugo Díaz←▼M. Galván

Salamanca UDS substitutes

SánchezCalderónDíazSánchezAltubeGiovanniTorres

Manager: Íñigo Vélez

60'▲Íñigo Orozco←▼Ekain Zenitagoia

67'▲Aitor Ortega←▼Mikel Álvaro

77'▲Ekaitz Molina←▼Iker Bilbao

Amorebieta substitutes

OrozcoOrtegaMolinaAldalurPérezGarroSalazar