Salamanca II vs Zamora: Preview & Prediction

Salamanca II

CANC

22:00

Zamora

5/9/2020

Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 41Estadio El Helmántico

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Salamanca II22%

×Draw27%

Zamora51%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Salamanca IIExpected goals in this matchZamora

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.85

1.43

Salamanca II

0.85

Zamora

1.43

Zamora creates 68% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 14 away

1.13

creates per match

1.79

1.06

allows per match

0.57

creates per match

Salamanca II

1.13

Zamora

1.79

allows per match

Salamanca II

1.06

Zamora

0.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Salamanca II+0.00on par

Zamora+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Salamanca II ↓

Zamora →

0–010%

0–115%

0–210%

0–35%

0–42%

1–09%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2–04%

2–15%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Salamanca II or draw

49%

Salamanca II or Zamora

73%

Draw or Zamora

78%

Winning margin

Salamanca II wins by 2+

Zamora wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

Salamanca II 1+ goals

57%

Salamanca II 2+ goals

21%

Salamanca II 3+ goals

Zamora 1+ goals

76%

Zamora 2+ goals

42%

Zamora 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Salamanca II (draw refunded)

31%

Zamora (draw refunded)

69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Salamanca II at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.06 · 62 matches

Zamora away — creates 1.79, concedes 0.57 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Salamanca II attack 1.13 + Zamora defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 0.85

Zamora attack 1.79 + Salamanca II defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 51%?"

Salamanca II scores more

22%

level

27%

Zamora scores more

51%

Zamora at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Zamora will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Salamanca II host Zamora

May 9, 2020: Salamanca II take on Zamora in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Salamanca II host Zamora at Estadio El Helmántico.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.

Salamanca II vs Zamora — Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Preview: Salamanca II host Zamora