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Salamanca II vs UD Santa Marta — Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 2019

Salamanca II
Salamanca II
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
UD Santa Marta
UD Santa Marta
1/29/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 8Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 18Estadio El Helmántico

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Salamanca II43%
×Draw28%
UD Santa Marta29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Salamanca II
1.31
UD Santa Marta
1.02

Salamanca II creates 28% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 115 away

creates per match

Salamanca II
1.13
UD Santa Marta
0.97

allows per match

Salamanca II
1.06
UD Santa Marta
1.50

finishing

Salamanca II+0.00on par
UD Santa Marta+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Salamanca II ↓

UD Santa Marta →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Salamanca II or draw
71%
Salamanca II or UD Santa Marta
72%
Draw or UD Santa Marta
57%

Winning margin

Salamanca II wins by 2+
20%
UD Santa Marta wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Salamanca II 1+ goals
73%
Salamanca II 2+ goals
38%
Salamanca II 3+ goals
14%
UD Santa Marta 1+ goals
64%
UD Santa Marta 2+ goals
27%
UD Santa Marta 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Salamanca II (draw refunded)
60%
UD Santa Marta (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Salamanca II at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.06 · 62 matches

UD Santa Marta away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.50 · 115 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Salamanca II attack 1.13 + UD Santa Marta defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.31

UD Santa Marta attack 0.97 + Salamanca II defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Salamanca II scores more
43%
level
28%
UD Santa Marta scores more
29%

Salamanca II at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Salamanca II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 8: Salamanca II 2–1 UD Santa Marta

Salamanca II beat UD Santa Marta 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 on January 29, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio El Helmántico in Salamanca.