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Salamanca II vs Real Burgos — Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 2019

Salamanca II
Salamanca II
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Real Burgos
Real Burgos
5/22/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 8Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 2nd Phase - 8Estadio El Helmántico

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Salamanca II48%
×Draw26%
Real Burgos26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Salamanca II
1.51
Real Burgos
1.03

Salamanca II creates 47% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 30 away

creates per match

Salamanca II
1.13
Real Burgos
1.00

allows per match

Salamanca II
1.06
Real Burgos
1.90

finishing

Salamanca II+0.00on par
Real Burgos+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Salamanca II ↓

Real Burgos →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Salamanca II or draw
74%
Salamanca II or Real Burgos
74%
Draw or Real Burgos
52%

Winning margin

Salamanca II wins by 2+
24%
Real Burgos wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Salamanca II 1+ goals
78%
Salamanca II 2+ goals
44%
Salamanca II 3+ goals
19%
Real Burgos 1+ goals
64%
Real Burgos 2+ goals
28%
Real Burgos 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Salamanca II (draw refunded)
65%
Real Burgos (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Salamanca II at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.06 · 62 matches

Real Burgos away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.90 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Salamanca II attack 1.13 + Real Burgos defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.51

Real Burgos attack 1.00 + Salamanca II defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Salamanca II scores more
48%
level
26%
Real Burgos scores more
26%

Salamanca II at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Salamanca II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 8: Salamanca II 2–1 Real Burgos

Salamanca II beat Real Burgos 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 on May 22, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio El Helmántico in Salamanca.