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Salamanca II vs Peñaranda — Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 2019

Salamanca II
Salamanca II
FT
2 – 3
HT: 2 – 0
Peñaranda
Peñaranda
11/21/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 8Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 6Estadio El Helmántico

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Salamanca II55%
×Draw25%
Peñaranda20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Salamanca II
1.63
Peñaranda
0.88

Salamanca II creates 85% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 16 away

creates per match

Salamanca II
1.13
Peñaranda
0.69

allows per match

Salamanca II
1.06
Peñaranda
2.13

finishing

Salamanca II+0.00on par
Peñaranda+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Salamanca II ↓

Peñaranda →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Salamanca II or draw
80%
Salamanca II or Peñaranda
75%
Draw or Peñaranda
45%

Winning margin

Salamanca II wins by 2+
30%
Peñaranda wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Salamanca II 1+ goals
80%
Salamanca II 2+ goals
48%
Salamanca II 3+ goals
22%
Peñaranda 1+ goals
59%
Peñaranda 2+ goals
22%
Peñaranda 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Salamanca II (draw refunded)
73%
Peñaranda (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Salamanca II at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.06 · 62 matches

Peñaranda away — creates 0.69, concedes 2.13 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Salamanca II attack 1.13 + Peñaranda defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 1.63

Peñaranda attack 0.69 + Salamanca II defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Salamanca II scores more
55%
level
25%
Peñaranda scores more
20%

Salamanca II at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Salamanca II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 8: Salamanca II 2–3 Peñaranda

Peñaranda beat Salamanca II 3-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 on November 21, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio El Helmántico in Salamanca.