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Salamanca II vs Palencia CF — Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 2019

Salamanca II
Salamanca II
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Palencia CF
Palencia CF
1/15/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 8Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 16Estadio El Helmántico

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Salamanca II40%
×Draw29%
Palencia CF31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Salamanca II
1.17
Palencia CF
1.00

Salamanca II creates 17% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 84 away

creates per match

Salamanca II
1.13
Palencia CF
0.93

allows per match

Salamanca II
1.06
Palencia CF
1.20

finishing

Salamanca II+0.00on par
Palencia CF+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Salamanca II ↓

Palencia CF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Salamanca II or draw
69%
Salamanca II or Palencia CF
71%
Draw or Palencia CF
60%

Winning margin

Salamanca II wins by 2+
17%
Palencia CF wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Salamanca II 1+ goals
69%
Salamanca II 2+ goals
33%
Salamanca II 3+ goals
11%
Palencia CF 1+ goals
63%
Palencia CF 2+ goals
26%
Palencia CF 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Salamanca II (draw refunded)
56%
Palencia CF (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Salamanca II at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.06 · 62 matches

Palencia CF away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.20 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Salamanca II attack 1.13 + Palencia CF defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.17

Palencia CF attack 0.93 + Salamanca II defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Salamanca II scores more
40%
level
29%
Palencia CF scores more
31%

Salamanca II at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Salamanca II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Salamanca II vs Palencia CF

Salamanca II beat Palencia CF 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 on January 15, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio El Helmántico in Salamanca.