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Salamanca II vs Cultural Cebrereña — Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 2019

Salamanca II
Salamanca II
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Cultural Cebrereña
Cultural Cebrereña
4/3/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 8Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 2nd Phase - 1Pistas del Helmántico

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Salamanca II49%
×Draw26%
Cultural Cebrereña24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Salamanca II
1.50
Cultural Cebrereña
0.97

Salamanca II creates 55% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 16 away

creates per match

Salamanca II
1.13
Cultural Cebrereña
0.88

allows per match

Salamanca II
1.06
Cultural Cebrereña
1.88

finishing

Salamanca II+0.00on par
Cultural Cebrereña+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Salamanca II ↓

Cultural Cebrereña →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Salamanca II or draw
76%
Salamanca II or Cultural Cebrereña
74%
Draw or Cultural Cebrereña
51%

Winning margin

Salamanca II wins by 2+
25%
Cultural Cebrereña wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Salamanca II 1+ goals
78%
Salamanca II 2+ goals
44%
Salamanca II 3+ goals
19%
Cultural Cebrereña 1+ goals
62%
Cultural Cebrereña 2+ goals
25%
Cultural Cebrereña 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Salamanca II (draw refunded)
67%
Cultural Cebrereña (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Salamanca II at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.06 · 62 matches

Cultural Cebrereña away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.88 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Salamanca II attack 1.13 + Cultural Cebrereña defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.50

Cultural Cebrereña attack 0.88 + Salamanca II defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Salamanca II scores more
49%
level
26%
Cultural Cebrereña scores more
24%

Salamanca II at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Salamanca II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Salamanca II 3 – 0 Cultural Cebrereña

Salamanca II beat Cultural Cebrereña 3-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 on April 3, 2021.

The match was played at Pistas del Helmántico in Salamanca.