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Salamanca II vs Colegios Diocesanos — Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 2019

Salamanca II
Salamanca II
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Colegios Diocesanos
Colegios Diocesanos
6/5/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 8Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 2nd Phase - 10Estadio El Helmántico

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Salamanca II49%
×Draw28%
Colegios Diocesanos22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Salamanca II
1.35
Colegios Diocesanos
0.81

Salamanca II creates 67% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 66 away

creates per match

Salamanca II
1.13
Colegios Diocesanos
0.56

allows per match

Salamanca II
1.06
Colegios Diocesanos
1.58

finishing

Salamanca II+0.00on par
Colegios Diocesanos+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Salamanca II ↓

Colegios Diocesanos →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Salamanca II or draw
78%
Salamanca II or Colegios Diocesanos
72%
Draw or Colegios Diocesanos
51%

Winning margin

Salamanca II wins by 2+
24%
Colegios Diocesanos wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Salamanca II 1+ goals
74%
Salamanca II 2+ goals
39%
Salamanca II 3+ goals
15%
Colegios Diocesanos 1+ goals
56%
Colegios Diocesanos 2+ goals
19%
Colegios Diocesanos 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Salamanca II (draw refunded)
69%
Colegios Diocesanos (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Salamanca II at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.06 · 62 matches

Colegios Diocesanos away — creates 0.56, concedes 1.58 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Salamanca II attack 1.13 + Colegios Diocesanos defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.35

Colegios Diocesanos attack 0.56 + Salamanca II defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Salamanca II scores more
49%
level
28%
Colegios Diocesanos scores more
22%

Salamanca II at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Salamanca II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Salamanca II 2 – 0 Colegios Diocesanos

Salamanca II beat Colegios Diocesanos 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 on June 5, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio El Helmántico in Salamanca.