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Salamanca II vs Burgos Promesas — Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 2019

Salamanca II
Salamanca II
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Burgos Promesas
Burgos Promesas
11/3/2019Tercera División RFEF - Group 8Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 13Estadio El Helmántico

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Salamanca II35%
×Draw30%
Burgos Promesas35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Salamanca II
1.03
Burgos Promesas
1.04

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 62 home / 63 away

creates per match

Salamanca II
1.13
Burgos Promesas
1.02

allows per match

Salamanca II
1.06
Burgos Promesas
0.94

finishing

Salamanca II+0.00on par
Burgos Promesas+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Salamanca II ↓

Burgos Promesas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–113%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–114%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Salamanca II or draw
65%
Salamanca II or Burgos Promesas
70%
Draw or Burgos Promesas
65%

Winning margin

Salamanca II wins by 2+
13%
Burgos Promesas wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Salamanca II 1+ goals
64%
Salamanca II 2+ goals
28%
Salamanca II 3+ goals
9%
Burgos Promesas 1+ goals
65%
Burgos Promesas 2+ goals
28%
Burgos Promesas 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Salamanca II (draw refunded)
50%
Burgos Promesas (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Salamanca II at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.06 · 62 matches

Burgos Promesas away — creates 1.02, concedes 0.94 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Salamanca II attack 1.13 + Burgos Promesas defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.03

Burgos Promesas attack 1.02 + Salamanca II defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

Salamanca II scores more
35%
level
30%
Burgos Promesas scores more
35%

Salamanca II at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "Salamanca II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Salamanca II vs Burgos Promesas

Salamanca II and Burgos Promesas drew 0-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 on November 3, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio El Helmántico in Salamanca.