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Salamanca II vs Becerril Campos — Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 2019

Salamanca II
Salamanca II
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Becerril Campos
Becerril Campos
10/30/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 8Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 8Estadio El Helmántico

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Salamanca II44%
×Draw27%
Becerril Campos29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Salamanca II
1.35
Becerril Campos
1.04

Salamanca II creates 30% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 97 away

creates per match

Salamanca II
1.13
Becerril Campos
1.02

allows per match

Salamanca II
1.06
Becerril Campos
1.58

finishing

Salamanca II+0.00on par
Becerril Campos+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Salamanca II ↓

Becerril Campos →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Salamanca II or draw
71%
Salamanca II or Becerril Campos
73%
Draw or Becerril Campos
56%

Winning margin

Salamanca II wins by 2+
20%
Becerril Campos wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Salamanca II 1+ goals
74%
Salamanca II 2+ goals
39%
Salamanca II 3+ goals
15%
Becerril Campos 1+ goals
65%
Becerril Campos 2+ goals
28%
Becerril Campos 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Salamanca II (draw refunded)
60%
Becerril Campos (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Salamanca II at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.06 · 62 matches

Becerril Campos away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.58 · 97 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Salamanca II attack 1.13 + Becerril Campos defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.35

Becerril Campos attack 1.02 + Salamanca II defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Salamanca II scores more
44%
level
27%
Becerril Campos scores more
29%

Salamanca II at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Salamanca II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Salamanca II 2 – 1 Becerril Campos

Salamanca II beat Becerril Campos 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 on October 30, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio El Helmántico in Salamanca.