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Salamanca II vs Arandina — Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 2019

Salamanca II
Salamanca II
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Arandina
Arandina
10/30/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 8Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 10Estadio El Helmántico

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Salamanca II34%
×Draw29%
Arandina38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Salamanca II
1.08
Arandina
1.16

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 62 home / 94 away

creates per match

Salamanca II
1.13
Arandina
1.26

allows per match

Salamanca II
1.06
Arandina
1.03

finishing

Salamanca II+0.00on par
Arandina+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Salamanca II ↓

Arandina →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Salamanca II or draw
62%
Salamanca II or Arandina
71%
Draw or Arandina
66%

Winning margin

Salamanca II wins by 2+
13%
Arandina wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Salamanca II 1+ goals
66%
Salamanca II 2+ goals
29%
Salamanca II 3+ goals
10%
Arandina 1+ goals
69%
Arandina 2+ goals
32%
Arandina 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Salamanca II (draw refunded)
47%
Arandina (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Salamanca II at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.06 · 62 matches

Arandina away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.03 · 94 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Salamanca II attack 1.13 + Arandina defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.08

Arandina attack 1.26 + Salamanca II defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Salamanca II scores more
34%
level
29%
Arandina scores more
38%

Arandina at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Arandina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 8: Salamanca II 0–2 Arandina

Arandina beat Salamanca II 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 on October 30, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio El Helmántico in Salamanca.