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Salam Zgharta vs Shabab Al Sahel — Premier League 2019

Salam Zgharta
Salam Zgharta
CANC
12:15
Shabab Al Sahel
Shabab Al Sahel
11/8/2019Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 7Salam Zgharta Club Stadium (Zgharta)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Salam Zgharta24%
×Draw26%
Shabab Al Sahel50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Salam Zgharta
0.95
Shabab Al Sahel
1.51

Shabab Al Sahel creates 59% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 64 away

creates per match

Salam Zgharta
0.67
Shabab Al Sahel
1.19

allows per match

Salam Zgharta
1.83
Shabab Al Sahel
1.23

finishing

Salam Zgharta+0.00on par
Shabab Al Sahel+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Salam Zgharta ↓

Shabab Al Sahel →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–113%
0–210%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Salam Zgharta or draw
50%
Salam Zgharta or Shabab Al Sahel
74%
Draw or Shabab Al Sahel
76%

Winning margin

Salam Zgharta wins by 2+
8%
Shabab Al Sahel wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Salam Zgharta 1+ goals
61%
Salam Zgharta 2+ goals
25%
Salam Zgharta 3+ goals
7%
Shabab Al Sahel 1+ goals
78%
Shabab Al Sahel 2+ goals
44%
Shabab Al Sahel 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Salam Zgharta (draw refunded)
32%
Shabab Al Sahel (draw refunded)
68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Salam Zgharta at home — creates 0.67, concedes 1.83 · 18 matches

Shabab Al Sahel away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.23 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Salam Zgharta attack 0.67 + Shabab Al Sahel defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 0.95

Shabab Al Sahel attack 1.19 + Salam Zgharta defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.51

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Salam Zgharta scores more
24%
level
26%
Shabab Al Sahel scores more
50%

Shabab Al Sahel at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Shabab Al Sahel will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Salam Zgharta vs Shabab Al Sahel — Match Preview

Salam Zgharta face Shabab Al Sahel on November 8, 2019 in this Premier League fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Salam Zgharta host Shabab Al Sahel at Salam Zgharta Club Stadium (Zgharta).

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.