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Salam Zgharta vs Al Ansar — Premier League 2019

Salam Zgharta
Salam Zgharta
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Al Ansar
Al Ansar
9/11/2022Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 2Salam Zgharta Club Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Salam Zgharta11%
×Draw20%
Al Ansar69%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Salam Zgharta
0.67
Al Ansar
2.03

Al Ansar creates 203% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 60 away

creates per match

Salam Zgharta
0.67
Al Ansar
2.23

allows per match

Salam Zgharta
1.83
Al Ansar
0.67

finishing

Salam Zgharta+0.00on par
Al Ansar+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Salam Zgharta ↓

Al Ansar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–114%
0–214%
0–39%
0–45%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–02%
2–13%
2–23%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Salam Zgharta or draw
31%
Salam Zgharta or Al Ansar
80%
Draw or Al Ansar
89%

Winning margin

Salam Zgharta wins by 2+
3%
Al Ansar wins by 2+
44%

Team goals

Salam Zgharta 1+ goals
49%
Salam Zgharta 2+ goals
15%
Salam Zgharta 3+ goals
3%
Al Ansar 1+ goals
87%
Al Ansar 2+ goals
60%
Al Ansar 3+ goals
33%

Draw no bet

Salam Zgharta (draw refunded)
14%
Al Ansar (draw refunded)
86%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Salam Zgharta at home — creates 0.67, concedes 1.83 · 18 matches

Al Ansar away — creates 2.23, concedes 0.67 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Salam Zgharta attack 0.67 + Al Ansar defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.67

Al Ansar attack 2.23 + Salam Zgharta defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 2.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Salam Zgharta scores more
11%
level
20%
Al Ansar scores more
69%

Al Ansar at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Al Ansar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Salam Zgharta vs Al Ansar

Al Ansar beat Salam Zgharta 3-0 in Premier League on September 11, 2022.

The match was played at Salam Zgharta Club Stadium in Zgharta.