Saku Sporting 0–2 Rakvere Tarvas: Result & Stats

Saku Sporting

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Rakvere Tarvas

7/27/2022

Cup · Round of 64Saku staadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Saku Sporting32%

×Draw20%

Rakvere Tarvas48%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Saku SportingExpected goals in this matchRakvere Tarvas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.87

2.33

Saku Sporting

1.87

Rakvere Tarvas

2.33

Rakvere Tarvas creates 25% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 5 away

2.14

creates per match

1.80

2.86

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

Saku Sporting

2.14

Rakvere Tarvas

1.80

allows per match

Saku Sporting

2.86

Rakvere Tarvas

1.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Saku Sporting+0.00on par

Rakvere Tarvas+0.00on par

Total goals

Over79
Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes76
No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Saku Sporting ↓

Rakvere Tarvas →

0–02%

0–14%

0–24%

0–33%

0–42%

1–03%

1–17%

1–28%

1–36%

1–43%

2–03%

2–16%

2–27%

2–36%

2–43%

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–33%

3–42%

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

92%8%2.5

79%21%3.5

60%40%4.5

40%60%

Double chance

Saku Sporting or draw

52%

Saku Sporting or Rakvere Tarvas

80%

Draw or Rakvere Tarvas

68%

Winning margin

Saku Sporting wins by 2+

16%

Rakvere Tarvas wins by 2+

29%

Team goals

Saku Sporting 1+ goals

85%

Saku Sporting 2+ goals

56%

Saku Sporting 3+ goals

29%

Rakvere Tarvas 1+ goals

90%

Rakvere Tarvas 2+ goals

67%

Rakvere Tarvas 3+ goals

41%

Draw no bet

Saku Sporting (draw refunded)

40%

Rakvere Tarvas (draw refunded)

60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

70%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Saku Sporting at home — creates 2.14, concedes 2.86 · 7 matches

Rakvere Tarvas away — creates 1.80, concedes 1.60 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Saku Sporting attack 2.14 + Rakvere Tarvas defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.87

Rakvere Tarvas attack 1.80 + Saku Sporting defence 2.86 → ÷2 → 2.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 48%?"

Saku Sporting scores more

32%

level

20%

Rakvere Tarvas scores more

48%

Rakvere Tarvas at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Rakvere Tarvas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff