Sakhalinets 1–2 Salyut-Belgorod: Result & Stats

Sakhalinets

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Salyut-Belgorod

4/15/2023

Second League - Group 3 · Group 3 - 2nd Phase - 3Futbol'noe pole 4 Akademiya Spartak im. F. Cherenkova

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Sakhalinets29%

×Draw24%

Salyut-Belgorod47%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SakhalinetsExpected goals in this matchSalyut-Belgorod

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.72

Sakhalinets

1.31

Salyut-Belgorod

1.72

Salyut-Belgorod creates 31% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 85 away

1.62

creates per match

1.71

1.73

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Sakhalinets

1.62

Salyut-Belgorod

1.71

allows per match

Sakhalinets

1.73

Salyut-Belgorod

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sakhalinets+0.00on par

Salyut-Belgorod+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sakhalinets ↓

Salyut-Belgorod →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Sakhalinets or draw

53%

Sakhalinets or Salyut-Belgorod

76%

Draw or Salyut-Belgorod

71%

Winning margin

Sakhalinets wins by 2+

13%

Salyut-Belgorod wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

Sakhalinets 1+ goals

73%

Sakhalinets 2+ goals

38%

Sakhalinets 3+ goals

14%

Salyut-Belgorod 1+ goals

82%

Salyut-Belgorod 2+ goals

51%

Salyut-Belgorod 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Sakhalinets (draw refunded)

38%

Salyut-Belgorod (draw refunded)

62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sakhalinets at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.73 · 26 matches

Salyut-Belgorod away — creates 1.71, concedes 1.00 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sakhalinets attack 1.62 + Salyut-Belgorod defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.31

Salyut-Belgorod attack 1.71 + Sakhalinets defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Sakhalinets scores more

29%

level

24%

Salyut-Belgorod scores more

47%

Salyut-Belgorod at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Salyut-Belgorod will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff