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Sakhalinets vs Rodina Moskva II — Second League - Group 3 2020

Sakhalinets
Sakhalinets
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Rodina Moskva II
Rodina Moskva II
11/13/2022Second League - Group 3Second League - Group 3 · Group 3 - 22Futbol'noe pole 4 Akademiya Spartak im. F. Cherenkova

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Sakhalinets24%
×Draw24%
Rodina Moskva II52%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sakhalinets
1.08
Rodina Moskva II
1.72

Rodina Moskva II creates 59% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 17 away

creates per match

Sakhalinets
1.62
Rodina Moskva II
1.71

allows per match

Sakhalinets
1.73
Rodina Moskva II
0.53

finishing

Sakhalinets+0.00on par
Rodina Moskva II+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sakhalinets ↓

Rodina Moskva II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Sakhalinets or draw
48%
Sakhalinets or Rodina Moskva II
76%
Draw or Rodina Moskva II
76%

Winning margin

Sakhalinets wins by 2+
9%
Rodina Moskva II wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

Sakhalinets 1+ goals
66%
Sakhalinets 2+ goals
29%
Sakhalinets 3+ goals
10%
Rodina Moskva II 1+ goals
82%
Rodina Moskva II 2+ goals
51%
Rodina Moskva II 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Sakhalinets (draw refunded)
31%
Rodina Moskva II (draw refunded)
69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sakhalinets at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.73 · 26 matches

Rodina Moskva II away — creates 1.71, concedes 0.53 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sakhalinets attack 1.62 + Rodina Moskva II defence 0.53 → ÷2 → 1.08

Rodina Moskva II attack 1.71 + Sakhalinets defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Sakhalinets scores more
24%
level
24%
Rodina Moskva II scores more
52%

Rodina Moskva II at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Rodina Moskva II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sakhalinets vs Rodina Moskva II

Rodina Moskva II beat Sakhalinets 3-0 in Second League - Group 3 on November 13, 2022.

The match was played at Futbol'noe pole 4 Akademiya Spartak im. F. Cherenkova in Moskva.