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Sakhalinets vs Peresvet Podolsk — Second League - Group 3 2020

Sakhalinets
Sakhalinets
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Peresvet Podolsk
Peresvet Podolsk
7/24/2022Second League - Group 3Second League - Group 3 · Group 3 - 2Sapsan Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Sakhalinets51%
×Draw21%
Peresvet Podolsk28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sakhalinets
2.07
Peresvet Podolsk
1.48

Sakhalinets creates 40% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 42 away

creates per match

Sakhalinets
1.62
Peresvet Podolsk
1.24

allows per match

Sakhalinets
1.73
Peresvet Podolsk
2.52

finishing

Sakhalinets+0.00on par
Peresvet Podolsk+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sakhalinets ↓

Peresvet Podolsk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Sakhalinets or draw
72%
Sakhalinets or Peresvet Podolsk
79%
Draw or Peresvet Podolsk
49%

Winning margin

Sakhalinets wins by 2+
30%
Peresvet Podolsk wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Sakhalinets 1+ goals
87%
Sakhalinets 2+ goals
61%
Sakhalinets 3+ goals
34%
Peresvet Podolsk 1+ goals
77%
Peresvet Podolsk 2+ goals
43%
Peresvet Podolsk 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Sakhalinets (draw refunded)
65%
Peresvet Podolsk (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sakhalinets at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.73 · 26 matches

Peresvet Podolsk away — creates 1.24, concedes 2.52 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sakhalinets attack 1.62 + Peresvet Podolsk defence 2.52 → ÷2 → 2.07

Peresvet Podolsk attack 1.24 + Sakhalinets defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Sakhalinets scores more
51%
level
21%
Peresvet Podolsk scores more
28%

Sakhalinets at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Sakhalinets will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League - Group 3: Sakhalinets 3–0 Peresvet Podolsk

Sakhalinets beat Peresvet Podolsk 3-0 in Second League - Group 3 on July 24, 2022.

The match was played at Sapsan Arena in Moskva.