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Sakhalinets vs Metallurg Lipetsk — Second League - Group 3 2020

Sakhalinets
Sakhalinets
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Metallurg Lipetsk
Metallurg Lipetsk
8/27/2022Second League - Group 3Second League - Group 3 · Group 3 - 8Futbol'noe pole 4 Akademiya Spartak im. F. Cherenkova

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Sakhalinets36%
×Draw24%
Metallurg Lipetsk40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sakhalinets
1.48
Metallurg Lipetsk
1.59

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 26 home / 53 away

creates per match

Sakhalinets
1.62
Metallurg Lipetsk
1.45

allows per match

Sakhalinets
1.73
Metallurg Lipetsk
1.34

finishing

Sakhalinets+0.00on par
Metallurg Lipetsk+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sakhalinets ↓

Metallurg Lipetsk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Sakhalinets or draw
60%
Sakhalinets or Metallurg Lipetsk
76%
Draw or Metallurg Lipetsk
64%

Winning margin

Sakhalinets wins by 2+
17%
Metallurg Lipetsk wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Sakhalinets 1+ goals
77%
Sakhalinets 2+ goals
43%
Sakhalinets 3+ goals
19%
Metallurg Lipetsk 1+ goals
80%
Metallurg Lipetsk 2+ goals
47%
Metallurg Lipetsk 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Sakhalinets (draw refunded)
47%
Metallurg Lipetsk (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sakhalinets at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.73 · 26 matches

Metallurg Lipetsk away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.34 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sakhalinets attack 1.62 + Metallurg Lipetsk defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.48

Metallurg Lipetsk attack 1.45 + Sakhalinets defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Sakhalinets scores more
36%
level
24%
Metallurg Lipetsk scores more
40%

Metallurg Lipetsk at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Metallurg Lipetsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sakhalinets vs Metallurg Lipetsk

Metallurg Lipetsk beat Sakhalinets 1-0 in Second League - Group 3 on August 27, 2022.

The match was played at Futbol'noe pole 4 Akademiya Spartak im. F. Cherenkova in Moskva.