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Sakhalinets vs Kosmos Dolgoprudny — Second League - Group 3 2020

Sakhalinets
Sakhalinets
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Kosmos Dolgoprudny
Kosmos Dolgoprudny
10/1/2023Second League - Group 3Second League - Group 3 · Group 3 - 11Futbol'noe pole 4 Akademiya Spartak im. F. Cherenkova

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Sakhalinets32%
×Draw24%
Kosmos Dolgoprudny44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sakhalinets
1.43
Kosmos Dolgoprudny
1.70

Kosmos Dolgoprudny creates 19% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 39 away

creates per match

Sakhalinets
1.62
Kosmos Dolgoprudny
1.67

allows per match

Sakhalinets
1.73
Kosmos Dolgoprudny
1.23

finishing

Sakhalinets+0.00on par
Kosmos Dolgoprudny+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sakhalinets ↓

Kosmos Dolgoprudny →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Sakhalinets or draw
56%
Sakhalinets or Kosmos Dolgoprudny
76%
Draw or Kosmos Dolgoprudny
68%

Winning margin

Sakhalinets wins by 2+
15%
Kosmos Dolgoprudny wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Sakhalinets 1+ goals
76%
Sakhalinets 2+ goals
42%
Sakhalinets 3+ goals
17%
Kosmos Dolgoprudny 1+ goals
82%
Kosmos Dolgoprudny 2+ goals
51%
Kosmos Dolgoprudny 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Sakhalinets (draw refunded)
42%
Kosmos Dolgoprudny (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sakhalinets at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.73 · 26 matches

Kosmos Dolgoprudny away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.23 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sakhalinets attack 1.62 + Kosmos Dolgoprudny defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.43

Kosmos Dolgoprudny attack 1.67 + Sakhalinets defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Sakhalinets scores more
32%
level
24%
Kosmos Dolgoprudny scores more
44%

Kosmos Dolgoprudny at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Kosmos Dolgoprudny will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League - Group 3: Sakhalinets 2–1 Kosmos Dolgoprudny

Sakhalinets beat Kosmos Dolgoprudny 2-1 in Second League - Group 3 on October 1, 2023.

The match was played at Futbol'noe pole 4 Akademiya Spartak im. F. Cherenkova in Moskva.