Sakhalinets 2–3 Khimki II: Result & Stats

Sakhalinets

FT

2 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

Khimki II

9/17/2023

Second League - Group 3 · Group 3 - 9Futbol'noe pole 4 Akademiya Spartak im. F. Cherenkova

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Sakhalinets42%

×Draw23%

Khimki II35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SakhalinetsExpected goals in this matchKhimki II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.72

1.54

Sakhalinets

1.72

Khimki II

1.54

Sakhalinets creates 12% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 74 away

1.62

creates per match

1.36

1.73

allows per match

1.82

creates per match

Sakhalinets

1.62

Khimki II

1.36

allows per match

Sakhalinets

1.73

Khimki II

1.82

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sakhalinets+0.00on par

Khimki II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sakhalinets ↓

Khimki II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Sakhalinets or draw

65%

Sakhalinets or Khimki II

77%

Draw or Khimki II

58%

Winning margin

Sakhalinets wins by 2+

22%

Khimki II wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Sakhalinets 1+ goals

82%

Sakhalinets 2+ goals

51%

Sakhalinets 3+ goals

25%

Khimki II 1+ goals

79%

Khimki II 2+ goals

45%

Khimki II 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Sakhalinets (draw refunded)

55%

Khimki II (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sakhalinets at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.73 · 26 matches

Khimki II away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.82 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sakhalinets attack 1.62 + Khimki II defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.72

Khimki II attack 1.36 + Sakhalinets defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Sakhalinets scores more

42%

level

23%

Khimki II scores more

35%

Sakhalinets at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Sakhalinets will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff