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Sakhalinets vs FK Spartak Tambov — Second League - Group 3 2020

Sakhalinets
Sakhalinets
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
FK Spartak Tambov
FK Spartak Tambov
10/19/2022Second League - Group 3Second League - Group 3 · Group 3 - 17Futbol'noe pole 4 Akademiya Spartak im. F. Cherenkova

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Sakhalinets34%
×Draw24%
FK Spartak Tambov42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sakhalinets
1.38
FK Spartak Tambov
1.57

FK Spartak Tambov creates 14% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 63 away

creates per match

Sakhalinets
1.62
FK Spartak Tambov
1.41

allows per match

Sakhalinets
1.73
FK Spartak Tambov
1.13

finishing

Sakhalinets+0.00on par
FK Spartak Tambov+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sakhalinets ↓

FK Spartak Tambov →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Sakhalinets or draw
58%
Sakhalinets or FK Spartak Tambov
76%
Draw or FK Spartak Tambov
66%

Winning margin

Sakhalinets wins by 2+
15%
FK Spartak Tambov wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Sakhalinets 1+ goals
75%
Sakhalinets 2+ goals
40%
Sakhalinets 3+ goals
16%
FK Spartak Tambov 1+ goals
79%
FK Spartak Tambov 2+ goals
46%
FK Spartak Tambov 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Sakhalinets (draw refunded)
44%
FK Spartak Tambov (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sakhalinets at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.73 · 26 matches

FK Spartak Tambov away — creates 1.41, concedes 1.13 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sakhalinets attack 1.62 + FK Spartak Tambov defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.38

FK Spartak Tambov attack 1.41 + Sakhalinets defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Sakhalinets scores more
34%
level
24%
FK Spartak Tambov scores more
42%

FK Spartak Tambov at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "FK Spartak Tambov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League - Group 3: Sakhalinets 0–1 FK Spartak Tambov

FK Spartak Tambov beat Sakhalinets 1-0 in Second League - Group 3 on October 19, 2022.

The match was played at Futbol'noe pole 4 Akademiya Spartak im. F. Cherenkova in Moskva.