Sakhalinets 3–1 Dinamo Vladivostok: Result & Stats

Sakhalinets

FT

3 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Dinamo Vladivostok

10/29/2023

Second League - Group 3 · Group 3 - 15Futbol'noe pole 4 Akademiya Spartak im. F. Cherenkova

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Sakhalinets33%

×Draw24%

Dinamo Vladivostok42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SakhalinetsExpected goals in this matchDinamo Vladivostok

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

1.59

Sakhalinets

1.39

Dinamo Vladivostok

1.59

Dinamo Vladivostok creates 14% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 55 away

1.62

creates per match

1.45

1.73

allows per match

1.16

creates per match

Sakhalinets

1.62

Dinamo Vladivostok

1.45

allows per match

Sakhalinets

1.73

Dinamo Vladivostok

1.16

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sakhalinets+0.00on par

Dinamo Vladivostok+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sakhalinets ↓

Dinamo Vladivostok →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Sakhalinets or draw

58%

Sakhalinets or Dinamo Vladivostok

76%

Draw or Dinamo Vladivostok

67%

Winning margin

Sakhalinets wins by 2+

15%

Dinamo Vladivostok wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Sakhalinets 1+ goals

75%

Sakhalinets 2+ goals

40%

Sakhalinets 3+ goals

16%

Dinamo Vladivostok 1+ goals

80%

Dinamo Vladivostok 2+ goals

47%

Dinamo Vladivostok 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Sakhalinets (draw refunded)

44%

Dinamo Vladivostok (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sakhalinets at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.73 · 26 matches

Dinamo Vladivostok away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.16 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sakhalinets attack 1.62 + Dinamo Vladivostok defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.39

Dinamo Vladivostok attack 1.45 + Sakhalinets defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Sakhalinets scores more

33%

level

24%

Dinamo Vladivostok scores more

42%

Dinamo Vladivostok at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Dinamo Vladivostok will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff