Sakhalinets 1–2 Dinamo Bryansk: Result & Stats

Sakhalinets

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Dinamo Bryansk

9/18/2022

Second League - Group 3 · Group 3 - 11Futbol'noe pole 4 Akademiya Spartak im. F. Cherenkova

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Sakhalinets28%

×Draw25%

Dinamo Bryansk47%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SakhalinetsExpected goals in this matchDinamo Bryansk

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.20

1.63

Sakhalinets

1.20

Dinamo Bryansk

1.63

Dinamo Bryansk creates 36% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 47 away

1.62

creates per match

1.53

1.73

allows per match

0.77

creates per match

Sakhalinets

1.62

Dinamo Bryansk

1.53

allows per match

Sakhalinets

1.73

Dinamo Bryansk

0.77

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sakhalinets+0.00on par

Dinamo Bryansk+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sakhalinets ↓

Dinamo Bryansk →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–110%

0–28%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

54%46%3.5

31%69%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Sakhalinets or draw

53%

Sakhalinets or Dinamo Bryansk

75%

Draw or Dinamo Bryansk

72%

Winning margin

Sakhalinets wins by 2+

11%

Dinamo Bryansk wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

Sakhalinets 1+ goals

70%

Sakhalinets 2+ goals

34%

Sakhalinets 3+ goals

12%

Dinamo Bryansk 1+ goals

80%

Dinamo Bryansk 2+ goals

48%

Dinamo Bryansk 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Sakhalinets (draw refunded)

37%

Dinamo Bryansk (draw refunded)

63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sakhalinets at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.73 · 26 matches

Dinamo Bryansk away — creates 1.53, concedes 0.77 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sakhalinets attack 1.62 + Dinamo Bryansk defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 1.20

Dinamo Bryansk attack 1.53 + Sakhalinets defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Sakhalinets scores more

28%

level

25%

Dinamo Bryansk scores more

47%

Dinamo Bryansk at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Dinamo Bryansk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff