Sakhalin 3–1 Znamya Noginsk: Result & Stats

Sakhalin

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Znamya Noginsk

5/15/2023

Second League - Group 3 · Group 3 - 2nd Phase - 8Stadion Spartak

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Sakhalin48%

×Draw25%

Znamya Noginsk27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SakhalinExpected goals in this matchZnamya Noginsk

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

1.09

Sakhalin

1.54

Znamya Noginsk

1.09

Sakhalin creates 41% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 55 away

1.29

creates per match

1.13

1.06

allows per match

1.78

creates per match

Sakhalin

1.29

Znamya Noginsk

1.13

allows per match

Sakhalin

1.06

Znamya Noginsk

1.78

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sakhalin+0.00on par

Znamya Noginsk+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sakhalin ↓

Znamya Noginsk →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Sakhalin or draw

73%

Sakhalin or Znamya Noginsk

75%

Draw or Znamya Noginsk

52%

Winning margin

Sakhalin wins by 2+

24%

Znamya Noginsk wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Sakhalin 1+ goals

79%

Sakhalin 2+ goals

45%

Sakhalin 3+ goals

20%

Znamya Noginsk 1+ goals

66%

Znamya Noginsk 2+ goals

30%

Znamya Noginsk 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Sakhalin (draw refunded)

64%

Znamya Noginsk (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sakhalin at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.06 · 69 matches

Znamya Noginsk away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.78 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sakhalin attack 1.29 + Znamya Noginsk defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.54

Znamya Noginsk attack 1.13 + Sakhalin defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Sakhalin scores more

48%

level

25%

Znamya Noginsk scores more

27%

Sakhalin at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Sakhalin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff