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Sakhalin vs Ska-khabarovsk — Cup 2019

Sakhalin
Sakhalin
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Ska-khabarovsk
Ska-khabarovsk
9/3/2019CupCup · 4th RoundStadion Kosmos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Sakhalin9%
×Draw24%
Ska-khabarovsk67%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sakhalin
0.41
Ska-khabarovsk
1.58

Ska-khabarovsk creates 285% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 6 away

creates per match

Sakhalin
0.00
Ska-khabarovsk
1.17

allows per match

Sakhalin
2.00
Ska-khabarovsk
0.83

finishing

Sakhalin+0.00on par
Ska-khabarovsk+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

73%No
  • No73
  • Yes27

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sakhalin ↓

Ska-khabarovsk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–122%
0–217%
0–39%
0–44%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–01%
2–12%
2–21%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–00%
3–10%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (22%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Sakhalin or draw
33%
Sakhalin or Ska-khabarovsk
76%
Draw or Ska-khabarovsk
91%

Winning margin

Sakhalin wins by 2+
2%
Ska-khabarovsk wins by 2+
37%

Team goals

Sakhalin 1+ goals
34%
Sakhalin 2+ goals
6%
Sakhalin 3+ goals
1%
Ska-khabarovsk 1+ goals
79%
Ska-khabarovsk 2+ goals
47%
Ska-khabarovsk 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Sakhalin (draw refunded)
12%
Ska-khabarovsk (draw refunded)
88%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
18%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sakhalin at home — creates 0.00, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

Ska-khabarovsk away — creates 1.17, concedes 0.83 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sakhalin attack 0.00 + Ska-khabarovsk defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.41

Ska-khabarovsk attack 1.17 + Sakhalin defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Sakhalin scores more
9%
level
24%
Ska-khabarovsk scores more
67%

Ska-khabarovsk at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Ska-khabarovsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sakhalin vs Ska-khabarovsk

Ska-khabarovsk beat Sakhalin 2-0 in Cup on September 3, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion Kosmos in Yuzhno-Sakhalinsk.