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Sakhalin vs Sakhalinets — Second League - Group 3 2020

Sakhalin
Sakhalin
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 0
Sakhalinets
Sakhalinets
10/30/2022Second League - Group 3Second League - Group 3 · Group 3 - 19Stadion Spartak

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Sakhalin30%
×Draw26%
Sakhalinets43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sakhalin
1.15
Sakhalinets
1.43

Sakhalinets creates 24% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 25 away

creates per match

Sakhalin
1.29
Sakhalinets
1.80

allows per match

Sakhalin
1.06
Sakhalinets
1.00

finishing

Sakhalin+0.00on par
Sakhalinets+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sakhalin ↓

Sakhalinets →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Sakhalin or draw
57%
Sakhalin or Sakhalinets
74%
Draw or Sakhalinets
70%

Winning margin

Sakhalin wins by 2+
12%
Sakhalinets wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Sakhalin 1+ goals
68%
Sakhalin 2+ goals
32%
Sakhalin 3+ goals
11%
Sakhalinets 1+ goals
76%
Sakhalinets 2+ goals
42%
Sakhalinets 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Sakhalin (draw refunded)
41%
Sakhalinets (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sakhalin at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.06 · 69 matches

Sakhalinets away — creates 1.80, concedes 1.00 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sakhalin attack 1.29 + Sakhalinets defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.15

Sakhalinets attack 1.80 + Sakhalin defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Sakhalin scores more
30%
level
26%
Sakhalinets scores more
43%

Sakhalinets at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Sakhalinets will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League - Group 3: Sakhalin 0–3 Sakhalinets

Sakhalinets beat Sakhalin 3-0 in Second League - Group 3 on October 30, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Spartak in Yuzhno-Sakhalinsk.