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Sakhalin vs Rodina Moskva II — Second League - Group 3 2020

Sakhalin
Sakhalin
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Rodina Moskva II
Rodina Moskva II
11/9/2022Second League - Group 3Second League - Group 3 · Group 3 - 21Stadion Spartak

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Sakhalin25%
×Draw27%
Rodina Moskva II48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sakhalin
0.91
Rodina Moskva II
1.39

Rodina Moskva II creates 53% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 17 away

creates per match

Sakhalin
1.29
Rodina Moskva II
1.71

allows per match

Sakhalin
1.06
Rodina Moskva II
0.53

finishing

Sakhalin+0.00on par
Rodina Moskva II+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sakhalin ↓

Rodina Moskva II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–114%
0–210%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Sakhalin or draw
52%
Sakhalin or Rodina Moskva II
73%
Draw or Rodina Moskva II
75%

Winning margin

Sakhalin wins by 2+
8%
Rodina Moskva II wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Sakhalin 1+ goals
60%
Sakhalin 2+ goals
23%
Sakhalin 3+ goals
6%
Rodina Moskva II 1+ goals
75%
Rodina Moskva II 2+ goals
40%
Rodina Moskva II 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Sakhalin (draw refunded)
34%
Rodina Moskva II (draw refunded)
66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sakhalin at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.06 · 69 matches

Rodina Moskva II away — creates 1.71, concedes 0.53 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sakhalin attack 1.29 + Rodina Moskva II defence 0.53 → ÷2 → 0.91

Rodina Moskva II attack 1.71 + Sakhalin defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Sakhalin scores more
25%
level
27%
Rodina Moskva II scores more
48%

Rodina Moskva II at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Rodina Moskva II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sakhalin vs Rodina Moskva II

Sakhalin beat Rodina Moskva II 2-1 in Second League - Group 3 on November 9, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Spartak in Yuzhno-Sakhalinsk.