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Sakhalin vs Orel — Second League - Group 3 2020

Sakhalin
Sakhalin
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Orel
Orel
5/19/2024Second League - Group 3Second League - Group 3 · Group 3 - 7Stadion Spartak

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Sakhalin44%
×Draw26%
Orel30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sakhalin
1.45
Orel
1.16

Sakhalin creates 25% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 35 away

creates per match

Sakhalin
1.29
Orel
1.26

allows per match

Sakhalin
1.06
Orel
1.60

finishing

Sakhalin+0.00on par
Orel+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sakhalin ↓

Orel →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Sakhalin or draw
70%
Sakhalin or Orel
74%
Draw or Orel
56%

Winning margin

Sakhalin wins by 2+
21%
Orel wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Sakhalin 1+ goals
77%
Sakhalin 2+ goals
42%
Sakhalin 3+ goals
18%
Orel 1+ goals
69%
Orel 2+ goals
32%
Orel 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Sakhalin (draw refunded)
59%
Orel (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sakhalin at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.06 · 69 matches

Orel away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.60 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sakhalin attack 1.29 + Orel defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.45

Orel attack 1.26 + Sakhalin defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Sakhalin scores more
44%
level
26%
Orel scores more
30%

Sakhalin at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Sakhalin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sakhalin vs Orel

Sakhalin beat Orel 1-0 in Second League - Group 3 on May 19, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Spartak in Yuzhno-Sakhalinsk.