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Sakhalin vs Metallurg Vidnoye — Second League - Group 3 2020

Sakhalin
Sakhalin
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Metallurg Vidnoye
Metallurg Vidnoye
6/5/2022Second League - Group 3Second League - Group 3 · Group 3 - 2nd Phase - 10Stadion Spartak

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Sakhalin64%
×Draw20%
Metallurg Vidnoye16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sakhalin
2.08
Metallurg Vidnoye
0.92

Sakhalin creates 126% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 30 away

creates per match

Sakhalin
1.29
Metallurg Vidnoye
0.77

allows per match

Sakhalin
1.06
Metallurg Vidnoye
2.87

finishing

Sakhalin+0.00on par
Metallurg Vidnoye+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sakhalin ↓

Metallurg Vidnoye →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Sakhalin or draw
84%
Sakhalin or Metallurg Vidnoye
80%
Draw or Metallurg Vidnoye
36%

Winning margin

Sakhalin wins by 2+
40%
Metallurg Vidnoye wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Sakhalin 1+ goals
87%
Sakhalin 2+ goals
61%
Sakhalin 3+ goals
34%
Metallurg Vidnoye 1+ goals
60%
Metallurg Vidnoye 2+ goals
23%
Metallurg Vidnoye 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Sakhalin (draw refunded)
80%
Metallurg Vidnoye (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sakhalin at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.06 · 69 matches

Metallurg Vidnoye away — creates 0.77, concedes 2.87 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sakhalin attack 1.29 + Metallurg Vidnoye defence 2.87 → ÷2 → 2.08

Metallurg Vidnoye attack 0.77 + Sakhalin defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Sakhalin scores more
64%
level
20%
Metallurg Vidnoye scores more
16%

Sakhalin at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Sakhalin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sakhalin vs Metallurg Vidnoye

Sakhalin beat Metallurg Vidnoye 3-1 in Second League - Group 3 on June 5, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Spartak in Yuzhno-Sakhalinsk.