Sakhalin 4–0 Krasnyy-SGAFKST: Result & Stats

Sakhalin

FT

4 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Krasnyy-SGAFKST

10/24/2020

Second League - Group 3 · Group 3 - 12Stadion Spartak

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Sakhalin49%

×Draw24%

Krasnyy-SGAFKST28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SakhalinExpected goals in this matchKrasnyy-SGAFKST

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.75

1.27

Sakhalin

1.75

Krasnyy-SGAFKST

1.27

Sakhalin creates 38% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 15 away

1.29

creates per match

1.47

1.06

allows per match

2.20

creates per match

Sakhalin

1.29

Krasnyy-SGAFKST

1.47

allows per match

Sakhalin

1.06

Krasnyy-SGAFKST

2.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sakhalin+0.00on par

Krasnyy-SGAFKST+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sakhalin ↓

Krasnyy-SGAFKST →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Sakhalin or draw

72%

Sakhalin or Krasnyy-SGAFKST

76%

Draw or Krasnyy-SGAFKST

51%

Winning margin

Sakhalin wins by 2+

26%

Krasnyy-SGAFKST wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Sakhalin 1+ goals

83%

Sakhalin 2+ goals

52%

Sakhalin 3+ goals

25%

Krasnyy-SGAFKST 1+ goals

72%

Krasnyy-SGAFKST 2+ goals

36%

Krasnyy-SGAFKST 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Sakhalin (draw refunded)

64%

Krasnyy-SGAFKST (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sakhalin at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.06 · 69 matches

Krasnyy-SGAFKST away — creates 1.47, concedes 2.20 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sakhalin attack 1.29 + Krasnyy-SGAFKST defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 1.75

Krasnyy-SGAFKST attack 1.47 + Sakhalin defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Sakhalin scores more

49%

level

24%

Krasnyy-SGAFKST scores more

28%

Sakhalin at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Sakhalin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff